Since becoming SEC rivals, the Georgia Bulldogs are 4-1 against the Missouri Tigers. However, Missouri is 3-2 against the spread over that span, keeping the last couple of games close as underdogs. But the Tigers might be hard-pressed to keep from becoming Homecoming fodder Saturday night in Athens.
College football point spread: The Bulldogs opened as 28-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)
College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 46.2-16.8 Bulldogs (College football picks on every game)
Why the Missouri Tigers can cover the spread
Missouri is working to halt a four-game losing streak, although they nearly stopped it at three last week, taking a 40-34 loss at Kentucky to the last play.
The Tigers trailed the Wildcats 13-0 early and 27-17 in the third quarter, but rallied to tie at 34-34 early in the fourth. Missouri then allowed a Kentucky field goal and had one of its own blocked. Down by six late, the Tigers drove to the Wildcats 27-yard line but ran out of time.
They did, however, cash as eight-point dogs.
Missouri actually outgained the Wildcats 568-486. The big-play Tigers ran the ball for 213 yards, threw it for 355 and scored three times on plays of 50 yards or more. But two Missouri turnovers led directly to 14 Kentucky points, and that was basically the difference.
The Tigers have actually outgained and outrushed two of their three SEC opponents this year.
Why the Georgia Bulldogs can cover the spread
Georgia remained one of the hot items in college football last week and one of the best bets so far, drubbing Vanderbilt 45-14. The Bulldogs drove their opening possession 83 yards to a touchdown, led 21-0 before letting the Commodores hit the board and later pushed that to 45-7 on their way to an easy cover of a 17-point spread.
Georgia outgained Vandy 549-236, outrushed the Commodores by the lopsided margin of 423-64 and won time of possession by a 34/26 split. Both Sony Michel (150) and Nick Chubb (138) hit the century mark rushing, while a shorthanded Bulldogs defense still limited Vandy to two basically meaningless touchdowns.
So UGA has won its first three SEC games this year by an average score of 39-6. The Bulldogs have also outgained and outrushed every opponent this season.
Georgia is going to win this game; the only thing that really matters is how the Bulldogs will finish. This is Homecoming, and with the game in hand, Georgia might well empty the bench. Plus, the Bulldogs have next week off before a big SEC East showdown with Florida. Missouri, meanwhile, is trying to build something, and will try to stick around as long it as it can. The smarter pick here is probably the Tigers plus the points at online betting sites.
College football betting trends
Missouri is 3-1 ATS in its last four games against Georgia.
The total has gone under in seven of Georgia’s last nine games in Week 7.
Georgia is 5-0 SU and ATS in its last five games against its conference.
All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.
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Source: Bleacher Report-CFB News