Florida State owns a six-game winning streak in its rivalry with Miami. However, they went only 3-3 against the spread during that run, playing as the heavy on the college football point spreads each time. Now, the chalk has turned, as the Seminoles are the underdogs for Saturday’s battle with the Hurricanes at Hard Rock Stadium down in Miami Gardens, Florida.
Point spread: The Hurricanes opened as 1.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).
College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 37.9-29.3, Hurricanes (college football picks on every game)
Why the Florida State Seminoles can cover the spread
Florida State is coming off its second defeat of the season, a gut-wrenching 37-35 loss to North Carolina. The Seminoles fell behind the Tar Heels 21-0, then battled all the way back to take a 35-34 lead with just 23 second left on the clock. However, they gave up a 23-yard completion and committed a pass-interference penalty, then lost on a 54-yard field goal at the buzzer.
On the day, Florida State outgained UNC, 595-538; outrushed the Heels, 223-133; and won time of possession by a 35-25 margin. The Seminoles’ first four drives of the day all reached Carolina territory but resulted in zero points. In the end, the Florida State defense just couldn’t stop Tar Heels quarterback Mitch Trubisky, who threw for 405 yards and three scores.
Bettors should note, though, that Florida State lost terribly at Louisville three weeks ago, then bounced back to win at South Florida, 55-35, covering as a four-point favorite. That made the Seminoles 9-0 straight up and 8-1 against the spread their last nine times out following losses.
Why the Miami Hurricanes can cover the spread
The Mark Richt era at Miami is off to a 4-0 start both SU and ATS, following last week’s 35-21 victory at Georgia Tech. The Hurricanes grabbed an early 7-0 lead on a 27-yard Joseph Yearby run, then snagged defensive touchdowns on back-to-back Tech possessions in the second quarter to go ahead, 28-7.
Miami later allowed Tech to get within seven but immediately responded by driving 75 yards in four plays for a touchdown and a 14-point lead. The defense then did the rest, holding the Yellow Jackets scoreless over their last four possessions, securing both the victory and the cover as seven-point road favorites.
The Hurricanes got outgained by Georgia Tech, 361-355. They just made the big plays.
Miami opened this season with blowouts of Florida A&M, Florida Atlantic and Appalachian State. It wasn’t exactly Murderers’ Row, but they got wins and covers nonetheless at -52, -25 and -5. Also, the Hurricanes may have lost six in a row in this series, but they’ve led the Seminoles in the fourth quarter each of the last two meetings.
Florida State’s defense has looked lost, giving up 135 points over the last three games. And now, with two losses, one might begin to wonder what the Seminoles’ motivation level might be.
Meanwhile, the Hurricanes’ strength of schedule doesn’t impress, but they do seem revitalized. And the cupboard wasn’t exactly bare when Richt took over. They opened as the favorites—and remain the favorites—to win the ACC’s Coastal Division. The smart money here sides with Miami.
Florida State is 6-0 SU in its last six games against Miami.
The total has gone under in Florida State’s last five games against Miami.
Miami is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games after consecutive wins.
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Source: Bleacher Report-ACC Football