In other words, LSU has been favored for the most recent meetings, but Auburn has been keeping the games tight. The teams might be headed for another close encounter Saturday night down at Jordan-Hare Stadium.
Point spread: The LSU Tigers opened as four-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)
College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 31.2-28.4 LSU Tigers (college football picks on every game)
Why the LSU Tigers can cover the spread
After opening this season with that tough loss to the Wisconsin Badgers up in Green Bay, the Bayou Bengals have won two games in a row, including a 23-20 decision over Mississippi State last week. LSU took an early 7-0 lead on a 37-yard Danny Etling touchdown pass to DJ Clark, went up 14-0 on running back Leonard Fournette‘s first touchdown of the season and stretched that to 20-0 on Fournette‘s second score. The Tigers still led 23-6 late into the game before allowing the Bulldogs to score twice, losing out on the cash as 13-point favorites.
On the night LSU outgained Mississippi State 392-270 in total yards, and outrushed the Bulldogs 177-56.
Etling, the junior transfer who made his first start for his new team last week, completed 19 of 30 passes for 215 yards and one score, without an interception. And Fournette, after missing the previous game with a sore ankle, ran the ball 28 times for 147 yards and two scores.
Meanwhile, the Tigers defense held Mississippi State to just one 3rd-down conversion in 14 attempts.
Why the Auburn Tigers can cover the spread
These Tigers are 1-2 on the season but 2-1 ATS. They opened with a tough 19-13 loss to Clemson, but covered as seven-point home dogs. They then bopped Arkansas State 51-14, covering as 20-point favorites. Last week Auburn fell at home to an improved Texas A&M outfit 29-16.
The Tigers actually took an early 7-0 lead on the Aggies last week, but sometimes that’s not a good thing for a home team because it can create a false sense of security. Auburn then allowed Texas A&M to score the next 16 points of the game. The Tigers pulled to within 16-10 at halftime, and were still hanging around well into the fourth quarter, but in the key sequence of the game they were stopped on a fourth down inside the Aggies red zone. They then gave up an 89-yard touchdown run to A&M running back Trayveon Williams, putting an end to any hopes of a rally.
Sophomore running back Kamryn Pettway led the way for the Tigers, posting his second straight 100-yard rushing performance with 123 yards on 20 carries.
Etling seems to have sparked the LSU offense, and with a healthy Fournette and that Tigers defense this is still a Top 10 team. Meanwhile, Auburn is having all sorts of troubles at home. It has gone just 5-7 straight up and 2-10 ATS its last 12 times out at Jordan-Hare. The smart money here backs the boys from Baton Rouge.
Auburn is 0-9 ATS in its past nine games after losing as a favorite.
Auburn is 19-7 SU in its past 26 games at home.
LSU is 0-4 ATS in its past four games on the road.
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Source: Bleacher Report -SEC Football